Last two weeks, time for a new color for the countdown calendar.
With just 14 days to go before the big dance, it’s pretty ugly in the cage, particularly if your heart runs to the Red side of the aisle. Despite the “tightening” of the race in recent days, something that usually happens in the last days of a presidential campaign, the map still looks awfully good for Team Obama:
Based on my latest look at the various polling sites – Real Clear Politics, Pollster, Polling Report, FiveThirtyEight, etc. – it’s still Obama’s to win (or lose). And, while Obama’s momentum has slowed and states like Ohio (which I had tilted toward Obama in the last look) and Florida (which some had tilted Blue as well) have moved back into the toss-up category, Obama still retains a commanding lead in electoral votes (286-163 by my estimate) meaning that McCain could win all the remaining battleground states and still lose. Hence the importance of Pennsylvania in these last two weeks; even though McCain is down there by as much as 12-14 points, it is the only play left to him that gets him above 270 (all the toss-ups plus PA makes the final count 273-265 for McCain).
There are, however, a number of problems with that scenario. First, as noted above, McCain is losing in PA badly at present and the trend there does not seem to be coming back his way as illustrated by Pollster’s poll tracking:
Second, winning all the toss-ups is a stretch. By some estimates, Nevada is gone and North Carolina is headed there as well (Pollster just tipped NC to leaning Blue). Then there’s the money disadvantage exacerbated by the fact that the GOP is having to spend resources defending states like MT, ND, GA and WV (pink because the trends there may be swinging – sometimes strongly – to the Dems). And the impact of the Powell endorsement in states like Florida. And on and on…
Bottom line, though, is don’t ice the champagne – or line up the shot glasses – just yet for either party. A lot can still happen and a lot will. As political consultant Steve Lombardo noted in an e-mail to clients today:
Two weeks from Election Day and this much is clear: Barack Obama has owned the last 30 days. This has propelled him into the lead and provided him with considerable momentum heading into the final stretch. The deteriorating economy continues to be the driving factor in this race; it is the fuel in the Obama engine and it seems unlikely that it will run out. The LCG regression model projects that if the election were held today John McCain would lose by 7.7 points. If the current trend is projected to Election Day he loses by double digits. However, this election–more than ever before–is about the 24-hour news cycle, tactical maneuvers and rapid response, some of which may impact the general trajectory of the campaign. [Emphasis added].
– Austin irs attorney fine
The Same Rowdy Crowd 