Many political scientists maintain that peace and prosperity are among the most reliable predictors of presidential electoral success.
At this stage, America in the Obama era has neither. It has the highest unemployment in a quarter century and is embroiled in two bloody, complex and unpopular foreign wars. Bad news, Barack.
So with all of Obama’s current woes, why is Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty — a supremely talented politician — trailing Obama by 11 points in his home state?
It’s way too early for presidential polls to be predictive of anything. They are merely a snapshot of the moment, and circumstances will change in a thousand different ways before the next presidential campaign. But at this particular moment, many Minnesotans who know plenty about Pawlenty are pretty grim about Tim.
What do the Minnesota masses know that the national Republican kingmakers don’t? I submit that over the last seven years, many Minnesotans have learned to translate Pawlentese. They now know that Pawlenty’s “no new taxes” pledge translates roughly into “yes new fees,” “yes higher local taxes,” and “yes higher long-term costs.”
Governor Pawlenty makes a darn good first impression. But the Pawlenty era has taught Minnesotans that too often when the initial sales pitch sounds too good to be true, it is.
– Joe Loveland (guest post)