“Think Blue” – A True Story of One Man’s Obsession

On Thursday afternoon over the lunch hour two young women were observed on Nicollet Mall passing out small cellophane packages, each stickered with this blog’s address and containing a blue silicone bracelet embossed with “Think Blue – 11/04/08.” In the course of about 15 minutes the two passed out more than 200 bracelets and then vanished into the crowd.

Was it a bit of political street theater to promote unity among Democrats?

A shameless promotion of this blog?

A counterpoint to the GOP operatives who were set up in the Crystal Court of the IDS Center soliciting volunteers for the upcoming convention?

Yes, yes and yes. But…like everything in my life, how those two women came to be at that spot with those bracelets is a story that once again illustrates why my wife’s signature is required for any checks over $200 and why my mother used to send notes to my friends asking them to remind me to wear shoes.

I’ll make it brief.

Continue reading ““Think Blue” – A True Story of One Man’s Obsession”

Clinton: “Inevitable” to “Independent?”

I wondered when I might see the first reference to it and I saw it this morning.

Polling data from Rassmussen Reports released today:

“… if Clinton does not win the Democratic Party nomination, 29% of Democrats say she should run an Independent campaign for the White House.”

And only 38 percent of Democrats (not just Clinton supporters, mind you, Democrats) think she should drop out of the race. I think that first figure is surprisingly high and the second suprisingly low at this stage of the game. 

Most look to Clinton’s now-failed inevitability positioning as something of a miscalculation, but a million years ago (July) my ever-prescient friend Austin rightly and clinically characterized it as one of her only options to somehow surmount the 50 percent negatives problem.

But what if you don’t need 50 percent to win? Like in a three-way race? Like 1912, when 41.8 percent did the trick for Woodrow Wilson against Roosevelt and Taft?

Massive, goofy longshot, sure. But do you suppose within campaign circles there’s at least a little “I’m not sayin’ but I’m just sayin'” talk going on about that other “I” word?

— Hornseth word invoice template fine

“Come Together. Right Now. Over Me.”

This re-punctuated Beatles lyric pretty much sums up the wishes of any number of Democrats who find the whole nomination process at little too Hobbesian – nasty, brutish, and – in this instance – long. What we Dems need, the thinking goes, is “this thing settled” before we so damage the eventual nominee that he or she isn’t able to mount a challenge to Senator John “I’m Tanned and Rested” McCain.

I ain’t buying it.

We – the politically junkies, the media, the blogosphere and the pundit corps – are all knotted up in the minutia of Obama’s latest gaffe or Hillary’s latest nastiness but all of it is simply an intermission before the start of Act II, the working title of which appears to be “The Republicans Get Spanked – Again – for Eight Years of Incompetence.”

“Wishful thinking,” you say? Here’s why I think not.

The latest Gallup poll indicates President Bush is the most unpopular president in 70 years of polling. I don’t care how far and fast Republicans – including Senator John “He’s My President” John McCain – try to run from that stink (and frankly, how far can he run without alienating his base many of whom – remarkably – still support The Decider?), their record of eight years of supporting that incompetence is all over them like shit mist.

A record 29 incumbent Republican House members are voluntarily leaving office this cycle. Think they might know something we don’t?

A staggering 81 percent of Americans think the country is off track. I’m thinking the logic of those voters isn’t going to be “four more years.”

Consider the state of the economy. Consumer confidence last month hit a five-year low and is expected to decline further this month. Oil prices came within pennies yesterday of $120 a barrel and the average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. is north of $3.60 (north of $3.90 in California). Unemployment jumped from 4.8 percent to 5.1 percent in March. Foreclosures are up 57 percent year-over-year. Bankruptcy filings increased 38 percent in 2007 versus the prior year and many feel we were just warming up for 2008.

These are not happy facts for anyone, particularly the people involved, so please feel free to ass-kick any Democrat who appears to be gloating over this litany of pain. That said, when the economy is faltering and people feel vulnerable and scared on the financial front, the party in power generally takes it in the shorts. We haven’t felt this vulnerable since the days of Hoover.

And then there’s the other little issues of the day – the war, national security, the environment, energy, health care, balancing the budget – where Democrats are consistently outpolling Republicans as the party people trust more to manage these issues – even the traditional GOP strongholds of national security and fiscal restraint.

In fact, the gap in party identification these days is as large as it’s been in decades with self-identified Dems (and leaners) outpulling GOP friends and family by a 51-37 margin (this shift has been so profound that Democrats actually outnumber Republicans in red states as a group). That’s doubly worrisome for the GOP when you consider how activated the Dems seem to be this cycle – in state after state Democratic enrollment and participation has surged while the GOP ranks – even when the race was still contested – have been a bit limp. Even the shock troops of Karl Rove’s much-heralded, soon-ridiculed permanent realignment – the evangelical voters who backed President Bush 62-38 in 2004 – seen to be a bit dispirited and divided. A recent survey suggests that if the election were held today, the split would be 40-28 for the Democrats.

And, to put a cherry on it, both Senators Obama and Clinton are outpolling Senator McCain even before either has turned any real attention to him and while in the midst of trying to brain one another:

I hope the Republicans enjoy their spring holiday while it lasts because my gut tells me they’re in for a long, cold fall election season.

– Austin

PS – In the course of researching this post, I came across an article by Alan Abramowitz in the New Republic that makes many of the same arguments I do except more eloquently and with more originality. If you’ve gotten to this point and are having another one of those, “What the hell is he trying to say?” moments I inadvertently create, check him out for a better translation.

PPS – I also found a very detailed and fact-based analysis of the electoral prospects in both the House and Senate on Congressional Quarterly’s site that is well worth a read. irs attorney kind

Obama’s Unused (So Far) Message: “Let’s End It.”

Time’s Mark Halperin (whose “The Page” is one of the more useful and appealing of the major news outlets’ blogs, IMHO) noted yesterday that two Obama staffers left Pennsylvania last night sporting “Stop the Drama, Vote Obama” t-shirts.

Now, I’m not sure to which of the associated election dramas the slogan originally referred, but the obvious intent of the message yesterday was “C’mon. We know where this is heading. End this thing now by voting for Obama.”

We’ve seen Obama campaign surrogates deliver variations on this theme over the past few weeks, but this was the first time I noticed someone within the campaign offering up, however casually or tentatively, anything other than a high-horsed “Sen. Clinton has the right to stay in the race as long as she wants” message.

High-horse is clearly the safe route. But the tone of the campaign has changed markedly since the most recent debate. Both sides are getting clobbered and bleeding cash. Neither side, yesterday’s Clinton win notwithstanding, is moving the delegate meter except by slight increments. While Clinton spokespeople claim to value the “spirited debate” taking place within the party, the not-so-invisible elephant in the room appears to be that the race is, save the shouting, over — and that all that awaits the Dems between now and the end of the primaries is each day wrapped up in a big, bright, red bow for Sen. McCain.

Of course, Obama couldn’t call for an end to it. He couldn’t call a press conference and articulate the reasons why it’s time for the party undecideds to rally around him for the sake of the general election. He couldn’t appear so presumptuous, so grabby. He couldn’t decide that if the rest of the party leadership won’t grab this thing by the horns, well, then he will.

Of course he couldn’t do those things.

Right?

— Hornseth blank invoices printable kind