Romney Rally Anthem

Don’t be angry. Don’t be sad.
And don’t sit cryin’ over good times you’ve had.
There’s a girl right next to you.
And she’s just waitin’ for something to do.

And there’s a rose in the fisted glove.
And the eagle flies with the dove.
And if you can’t be with the one you love,
honey, love the one you’re with.

Love the one you’re with.
Love the one you’re with.
Love the one you’re with.

- Stephen Stills

A Little Too Rowdy Of A Crowd

Political communicators work day and night to control everything about political events. The stagecraft. The music. The tempo. The supporting cast. The wardrobe. The make-up. The messaging. The media coverage.

But there is one thing that seems to be increasingly difficult for political handlers to control. The audience.

At this phase of the campaign cycle, the Republican frontrunners’ campaigns are doing their best to win partisan primary and caucus voters without spooking less partisan and zealous General Election voters watching TV coverage of events. It’s a tricky balancing act under any circumstances, and the audiences at Republicans events are making it much more difficult.

The boisterous zealots bellowing forth at nationally televised Republican events are diverting attention from the front-runners’ carefully focus group tested messaging, and instead making the candidates look bloodthirsty…

intolerant…

and heartless…

These candidates look extreme by association. These are not the warm and fuzzy images that the political handlers strive to create. Long after background flags are returned to the rental company, these Gladiator-esque reactions of the Republican crowd are what many of us remember about the moment.

A winning Republican formula in the past has been to run candidates with warm-feeling personalities to mask the harsh impact of the conservative policies they support. Reagan, Pawlenty, McCain and Romney are among those who played that game especially well. But the discordant chorus at Republican events is taking the sheen off the frontrunners’ carefully managed nice guy images.

This is not an insignificant issue for political communicators in the age of extreme political polarization. If I were a Republican spin savant, I’d be spending less time obsessing about the size of the candidates’ flag pin decal, and more time on crowd control.

Loveland

The Star That Burns Brightest Burns Fastest

7-4-2009 12-16-49 PMOn this 4th of July holiday, amidst all of the celebrations, let’s take a moment to note the passing of Sarah Palin’s political career; it was just 17 years old and in the last year briefly captured our attention and a few hearts along the way. The cause of death is still unknown, but it’s clear the wound was self-inflicted.

Forget all of the “political analysis” that’s filling the internet about what a smart move this was because it’s bullshit.  Yesterday, Sarah Palin drove a stake right through the heart of her presidential prospects.  She might become a talk show host, she might go on the radio, become an advocate for causes and a fixture on the speaking circuit.  She will not, however, ever be a credible candidate for president again.

Sarah Palin did not cost John McCain the election, but she made the trainwreck worse.  Outside of the hardcore movement conservatives who respond to her emotionally, the rest of us saw a women ill-prepared for the national stage, uneducated and unsophisticated about the critical issues of the day,  and emotionally and intellectually immature.  Questions about her judgment made questions about John McCain’s judgment a legitimate campaign issue.  Throughout the fall, her standing among the American electorate dropped faster that an SUV gas gauge on the highway as each exposure made it clear that the woman who would be a heartbeat away from the Oval Office was a scary prospect indeed.

Ms. Palin might have had a chance to run in 2012 if she had gone back to Juneau, governed effectively, spent as much time as possible on the lower 48 fundraising/political circuit (admittedly no small feat for a sitting Alaska governor) and brought in a faculty to provide a three-year crash course on the policy issues and political skills (message discipline, interview skills, etc.) that she tried to skip over last year.  That way, when the spotlight came back around, the public would see a Sarah Palin ready to govern the most complex country in the world during one of the most complex periods in world history and she would have built up a record and political organization to support a campaign.

A very tough, narrow road to walk, admittedly, but the only one I can think of that would have possibly undone the damage she did among the 75 percent of us who found her varying degrees of scary.  If she could persuade a third of  us that she was qualified, she could have been a contender.

Instead, she has done the one thing I can think of to effectively cement her image as a capricious and emotionally immature personality; she’s elected to simply walk away from her job as governor with 18 months to go.  And to do so because it’s become a burden.

Ms. Palin may or may not chose to try to run for president in 2012 or thereafter.  If she does, however, her entire campaign will be defined by a single question that she can expect to hear over and over and which – for her – there is now no correct answer:

“Governor Palin, you abandoned your responsibilities as the governor of one of our nation’s smallest (other than geography) and least complex states; what makes you qualified to serve as President of the United States?”

RIP.

- Austin

Last Look at the Electoral Cage Match

What a long, strange trip it’s been.  I’m very excited to see how it all plays out tomorrow.  As Willy Wonka put it, “The suspense is terrible; I hope it will last.”

Here’s where we are…The pollsters and pundits differ slightly on the details, but not on the direction of the election on this last day of the longest campaign:

Many pollsters are detecting some tightening of the race, but none of them are prepared to do any substantial tipping of the race toward the GOP.  In fact, it’s worth noting that most of the tightening seems to be attributable to increases in support for McCain rather than a loss of support for Obama.  Indeed, for several days, Obama has been showing steady support above 50 percent at both the national level and in many of the state polls.

Here’s an interesting site that sums up the various pollsters.  Click on the image below to see an interactive version of the chart.  Mouse over each row to see how various pollsters are calling the race:

Here’s my final prediction for how things will go…

This is a very optimistic scenario for Team Obama and is based on a couple of assumptions on my part:

  • Early voting, particularly among blacks, is going to help Obama/Biden more than many are currently predicting.  This will be the primary factor in pushing North Carolina and Virginia into the Blue column.
  • The Obama GOTV effort will be as effective as everything else they’ve done to date and will make the difference in Ohio, Florida and Missouri.
  • Republicans are disheartened and they are not funding their GOTV efforts at the same level seen in previous recent elections.
  • Long lines and glitches will not have a significant effect on turnout.
  • There is no meaningful “Bradley effect” that is overstating Obama’s support.  In fact, I think there may be some reason to think there’s a “reverse Bradley” at work where some white voters are saying they’re backing McCain but will in the end pull the lever for Obama.
  • Sarah Palin is a huge disincentive for anyone other than the Republican base to support McCain/Palin.  The most recent survey I saw indicated 45 percent of respondents rated her choice as “poor.”

Nate Silver, one of the forces behind FiveThirtyEight.com, which has become one of my favorite site since PM introduced me to it, has posted on Newsweek‘s site his version of what to look for tomorrow night.  It makes a good companion to the material I posted in the last couple of weeks.

Now, let’s hear from you, Crowdies!  What do you think will happen tomorrow?  Give us an electoral college count.

Game on!

- Austin how to write an invoice nice

John McCain Throws His Running Mate Under the SNL Bus

John McCain did a nice job on Saturday Night Live this evening with an elaborate intro sketch.  He did a workmanlike job delivering his lines and reminded us that he has a pretty good sense of humor.  The writing was a bit forced as – far more than any other political celebrity walk-ons I’ve seen on SNL – it included some overt – and lengthy – McCain campaign messages in the dialog.  Tina Fey reprised her Sarah Palin character and joined McCain throughout.  In what has to be gesture of true spousal love, Cindy McCain had a part as well.

One person, though, who’s probably not laughing much right now is the Barracuda of the North, our own Sarah Palin.  The sketch knocked her on the clothing issue, on the “goin’ rogue” issue, on not going back to Alaska and a couple other topics, all while Senator McCain looked on (and implicitly endorsed it).  His presence and participation in the skit made the knocks seem harsher.

Probably gonna be a little frosty on tomorrow’s McCain morning messaging call.

- Austin

Photo credit: David Karp, AP free invoice software nice

McCain’s “Hail Sarah” Finally Comes Down…and Falls Incomplete

Back on August 29th, when Alaska Governor Sarah Palin burst onto the national political scene, I called it McCain’s “Hail Sarah” pass and thought it spoke of desperation among the McCainites.  It took two months for the ball to reach the top of its arc and fall toward the endzone but based on the story posted on the New York Times web site this evening, I think we’re ready to make a ruling on the field:

“The pass is incomplete.  4th down.”

According to the Times‘ polling on the subject…

All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

Only 36 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Governor Palin and only 35 percent consider her prepared to assume the presidency.  Forty-one percent had an unfavorable opinion.  By comparison, Joe Biden had an 18 point favorable/unfavorable spread (43-25) and 74 percent of respondents consider him prepared to be president.

It gets worse…

Mr. McCain’s renewed efforts to cast himself as the candidate of change have apparently faltered. Sixty-four percent of voters polled said Mr. Obama would bring about real change if elected, while only 39 percent said Mr. McCain would. And despite Mr. McCain’s increased efforts to distance himself from President Bush, a majority still said he would generally continue Mr. Bush’s policies.

So, to boil it down, Senator McCain damaged – fatally it seems – his argument that he’s the candidate with experience and solid judgment by picking Governor Palin and jumping to a message of “change is coming.”  Unfortunately, the change message has failed as well.

The poll does, however, illuminate the reason why all you’ll hear from the Red Team over the next five days is attacks on Obama’s fitness to handle an international crisis (witness Sarah Palin today): the only category in which McCain holds any meaningful lead over Obama is in the category of readiness to serve as commander-in-chief:  McCain is held to “very prepared” by 47 percent of the electorate to only 33 percent for Obama.

Maybe that sets the stage for the last Hail Mary of the cycle.

- Austin sample invoice template free nice

Walk Softly and Carry A Big Quote

One of the most effective things anyone in a debate can do is use credible third parties to make their points for them, especially when the third party is an ally of your opponent.

Well, in the waning days of the presidential campaign, Barack Obama is being called a socialist by John McCain, Sarah Palin and Joe the Pawn, because he is calling for America’s wealthiest citizens to pay the level of taxes they paid in the Clinton years, so that middle income families can get a tax cut.

To defend the policy, Obama need look no further than John McCain’s self-described “hero:”

“We grudge no man a fortune in civil life if it is honorably obtained and well used. It is not even enough that it should have been gained without doing damage to the community. We should permit it to be gained only so long as the gaining represents benefit to the community. … The really big fortune, the swollen fortune, by the mere fact of its size, acquires qualities which differentiate it in kind as well as in degree from what is possessed by men of relatively small means. Therefore, I believe in a graduated income tax on big fortunes, and … a graduated inheritance tax on big fortunes, properly safeguarded against evasion, and increasing rapidly in amount with the size of the estate.”

Theodore Roosevelt

In the closing days of the campaign, Obama needs to employ a credible third party for corroboration on this issue. He should let McCain argue with Teddy.

Or if that doesn’t work, Obama should let McCain argue with someone even closer to McCain’s heart:

Student: Why is that some like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he’s a doctor.

McCain: I think you’re questioning the fundamentals of a progressive tax system where people who make more money pay more in taxes than a flat across-the-board percentage. I think it’s to some degree because we obviously believe that wealthy people can afford more. We have over the years, beginning with John F. Kennedy, reduced some of those marginal tax rates to make them less onerous. But I really believe that when you look at the tax code today, the very wealthy, because they can afford tax lawyers and all kinds of loopholes, really don’t pay nearly as much as you think you do when you just look at the percentages. And I think middle income Americans, working Americans, when you count in payroll taxes, sales taxes, mortgage, uh, all of the taxes that working Americans pay, I think you would think that they also deserve significant relief in my view.”

Student: Aren’t we getting closer and closer to, like, socialism and stuff?

McCain: Here’s what I really believe: That when you are reach a certain level of comfort there is nothing wrong with paying somewhat more, but at the same time it shouldn’t be totally out of proportion…”

- Loveland

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