You Pays Your Money and You Makes Your Bets…

So…here it is.  Some people must feel this way anticipating the Super Bowl or the World Cup.  For me, it’s election night.

I’ll fire up the televisions that haven’t been out of their boxes in four years.  Connect the projector to one of the computers.  Since 2008, iPads have been added to the mix and there will be plenty of those lying around as well.

The fun will start early:

We should start seeing things by 6:00 pm (7:00 pm EST).  I suspect we won’t KNOW who wins, however, until sometime on Wednesday if then.  There’s a fair number of chances for recounts, lawsuits, etc. In fact, the post-election period promises to be almost as contentious as the fall campaign season has been.

As to who will win, I’m going with Obama.  No surprise there, of course, but – if you believe the polls – the conclusion is inescapable.  I very much agree with Nate Silver’s fact-based, logical analysis of the race.  If he’s wrong, then what you’ll see tomorrow is a true 1-in-8 longshot coming in. Not to say it doesn’t happen, it simply seems very unlikely at this point.

Here’s my bets:

Obama/Romney:  290-248 electoral votes, 50.1-48.9 popular vote.

Bellwethers: if they call Virginia or Florida or New Hampshire early for anybody, those are important indications of direction.  If Pennsylvania is too close to call for a long while (or goes for Romney) it’s a bad night for Obama.  If North Carolina stays uncalled, it’s a bad sign for Romney.

In the Midwest, we’re watching who gets Iowa.  In the mountain states, it’s Colorado.

Senate: Democrats retain a majority.  Maybe one party or the other picks up a seat, but the overall majority remains Democratic.  Warren wins in Massachusetts, McCaskill wins in Missouri, Donnelly wins in Indiana.  Here’s a good blow-by-blow if you’re interested.

House:  The GOP keeps the House, probably at roughly the same numbers.  Again, a good overview is here.

In other words, if my predictions are right, on Wednesday morning – assuming we’re done counting – the balance of power at the federal level will look a lot like it does now.

Here in the Land O’ Lakes, Senator Klobuchar wins by 30 points, maybe more.  Rick Nolan will make Chip Cravaack a one-term Congressman and we’ll still have Michelle Bachmann to embarrass us on the national stage as I expect Jim Graves’ challenge to fall short (but maybe not by much).  No changes in the rest of the Congressional delegation.  The marriage amendment fails and the voter ID amendment passes, but the latter will be much closer than polls have shown.

I don’t have a feel for the legislative races, but smarter people than me seem to think the Dems have a chance to reclaim the Senate majority.  I’ll go with that.

OK, that’s my predictions…what are yours?

- Austin

32 Responses

  1. There’s lots of reasons why I like and respect you Austin, not the least of which is your political insight and savvy. Think your projections are pretty much right on. Sure would like it if we’re both wrong about Michelle though.

    Dennis

    Dennis B. McGrath

    McGrath Buckley Communications Counseling
    284 Pelham Blvd.
    Saint Paul, MN 55104
    Office: (651) 646-4115
    Fax: (651) 603-8660

  2. I’m not far off of your predictions, Jon.

    Looking on the local side, I think that if Bills does not break 30%, then the DFL will make strong gains in the House and Senate, and probably take one of them.

  3. No Fn clue. If this race is as close as it seems, I would by no means bet anything one way or the other….simple turnout seems to hold the key. I hope Republicans don’t piss themselves and stomp and cry and challenge if it’s razor close and they lose…..like Dems did in 2000. Let’s have some dignity…..please.

  4. Romney 52 / 326 – Obama 48 / 213

  5. Jon:

    A good botltle of scotch will come in handy for you tomorrrow,.

    Ta ta, fake candidate. His mother’s named Stanley,. Was that not a tipoff?

    Apparently dead ambassadors and flamimg consulates are OK with you, as well?

    Sorry, no.

    • Bert –

      You’re pithy but not persuasive. The best counter-programming I’ve heard so far is from the GOP political operatives my age and older who want to compare this election to previous ones. They, like me, have reservoir of experiences that makes us think this election feels alot like 1980 or 1976 when challengers knocked off incumbents.

      But…that intuition isn’t supported by the empirical evidence unless you aggressively cherry pick the polls and other data.

      I think people my age may not fully understand how distributed campaigning has become thanks to technology and young people’s total immersion into social media.

      This could be a watershed election – like radio in 1932 or television in 1960 – when the old guard never sees the train coming.

      Or…maybe it’s not. The good news is we’ll start to know in a few hours.

      – Austin

  6. And the landslide brought me dowm. S. Nicks

  7. Oh,ohhh, the landslide brought me down…… S. Nicks (cont’d).

  8. Oh, mirror in the sky, what is love? S. Nicks.

  9. You bastards have met the end.

  10. Deservedly so, I might add. Try the Johnnie Walker Black. Four Stars!

  11. And make sure Lambert has a mojito, or some other suitable girl-drink handy.

    • He’ll need it. “And I see my reflection in the snow covered haze, and the landslide brings me down…oh, ohhh the landslide brings me down…..”.

      Sweet.

  12. In parting, may I add a special shout out to Leinfelder?

    “Suck it, sister!”

  13. Nipping at the bottle a bit yourself, eh?

    well, don’t drink so much that you forget to vote tomorrow.

    (and, if i were you, I wouldn’t spend so much time having conversations myself–they only make you look dumb)

  14. Romney wins.

    My opinion: Young people, many first time voters or college-age idealists, are not too enthused about the thought of an Obama second-term. There’s is no sense of excitement or election passion in this traditional Democratic base. Some will quietly vote for Romney.

    Lunch-pail, Reagan Democrats in the key swing states are not fully convinced that moving forward with Obama will bring a different set of results. For making them, considering the economy and massive borrowing from China, a change would do the country good.

    Voters from non-white segments will not be going to the polls in droves like they once did for Obama, knowing there is not a good choice for them between the two candidates for presidency. Romney will win American Asians and will do better with Hispanics than predicted. Light turnout among Blacks nationwide.

    Side note: Most Minnesota Blacks going to the polls will vote for Obama and yes to the Marriage amendment. The Marriage Amendment passes, as does Voter ID.

    • So far, looks like both amendments are going down to defeat……and the no votes are outpacing the Obama votes!!. So both amendments seem to be far less popular than Obama….suggests that Mn blacks are not voting pro-Obama, anti-Marriage amendment. Will have to wait for further analysis to find out the details, but….

  15. Well, the Black Panthers have turned out in Philly.

  16. The Great and Wonderful Austin is in synch with other shrewd analysts … like this guy …

    “Barring an October surprise from one of the GOP’s leading intellectual lights — like Donald Trump — my prediction is Obama will win by something around 1.5% and a bit less than 300 electoral votes.”

    B. Lambert. TSRC, Oct. 23, 2012.

    BTW, Bertram my man, you might want to dial back on the paint thinner.

  17. Dems are no longer likely voters. Romney in a romp.

  18. Here is a really good viewers guide to the evening……

    http://theweek.com/article/index/235914/election-night-2012-a-viewers-guide

  19. PM:

    What kind of cooking class are you taking? I’ve never done that before, and it seems like a good alternative to watching the tube all night.

    • Just got back from the class. Mexican comfort cooking. Kitchen Window at Calhoun Square. Pretty damn good. i am full, and quite happy (and the fact that both CNN and Fox are predicting an Obama victory is icing on the cake).

      Seriously, I loved the cooking class. First time for me, but talked to a lot of people who had done it many times before. They all loved it. I was one of the few there w/ a spouse. Maybe 2/1 female/male. mostly married, w/ spouses at home w/ kids, etc. They sell wine and beer at the class–very nice selection, and a money maker for them, although the prices were reasonable. Only thing that I didn’t appreciate was the $11.00 for parking……

  20. Whatever happens, our ex governor can still beat up your ex governor and that is all that really matters.

    P.S. Obama in 3. K.O.

  21. I see the peanut gallery is spot on, as usual. What a collection of…

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