From Al to Avista

In 1982 I wrote the “good-bye” story for the old Minneapolis Star when it ceased publication and was folded into the morning Tribune. Mike Finney, the gentlemanly and thoughtful managing editor at the time, asked me to do the story, he said, “because everyone else around here is a mess.”

What he didn’t know was that I was in the same shape — in shock, but more in mourning.  To prove that, I remember listening to then-editor Steve Isaacs give his “we’re being folded into the Tribune, our arch-enemy, speech,” and being asked, “Did you get that?” by my friend Bob Ostmann, the metro editor.  I turned to him with a blank and embarrassed stare and said, “No.” I had completely forgotten to take notes.

It didn’t matter. And it shouldn’t have mattered, because that speech was for us, the Minneapolis Star family. We had experienced a death — our voice, our cause, which had been to do something bold and different. I had lived that cause with a desperate passion for the two years I had worked there.

So it is with a similar sense of mourning that I read to day that the Star Tribune is filing for Chapter 11. We all knew the patient was very, very ill. That’s been obvious for so long now. No, it’s not a death, but it is a form of cancer: disruptive, debilitating, weakening. Will the operation work? Maybe; maybe not.  But in the end, something surely will be lost. The body will be weaker. Scars. Long rehabilitation. Maybe worse.

But these are our times. Which brings us to Al — that’d be Al Checci. Al did exactly to Northwest Airlines what the Avista people, and before them, McClatchy, did to the Strib: leveraged a high fixed-cost business.  Look at what that bought us with Northwest Airlines:  First, a bankruptcy, now a merger with Delta.  He took an unleveraged, profitable airline — potentially a Minnesota version of a Southwest Airlines — and ruined it, depriving our community of thousands of jobs and a strong, healthy Fortune 500 enterprise.

It’s the number one Don’t in business. Whether it’s airplanes, coupled with the high variable cost of fuel, union contracts and the high level of economic sensitivity, or printing presses, a big fleet of delivery trucks and union labor, you don’t borrow big money to buy those types of assets.

The variables are just too unpredictable and the fixed costs too high to pile up a bunch of debt against them. To be sure, the Strib was cash flowing like a banchee when Avista bellied up to the table, but interest rates were also at an historic low, the economy was humming, and the private equity money flooding in to firms like Avista, looking for a home.  So it made sense — sort of — for Avista to have taken a hard look at the Strib.  After all, they were taking it off McClatchy’s hands for roughly half what McClatchy had paid for the property.  Times were good; the business was performing.

But shoot:  What about that pesky internet? Craig’s List? Oil prices (delivery costs, ink)?  Inflation? Didn’t these guys model for that? Really? Didn’t Checci model to cover the financing costs of hundreds of leased jets should business slow down? Oil prices increase? Recession slow down the economy?  Or didn’t they even care?  I strongly suspect the latter; I really do.

So now, thanks to leverage — a fancy word for a Jumbo Mortgage — we have sickened another one of our key community; nay CIVIC, resources. Again, a bunch of people playing with Other Peoples’ Money in a strong economy where risk premiums had been cut to nothing, prompting ever-more risk-taking for ever-lower returns.  Now we, as a community, get to reap the benefits: Fewer reporters, smaller newsholes, fewer high-paying jobs, potentially less government oversight, less coverage of the arts, our community, our culture.

Swell. Just swell.

Okay Vance: It’s time to step up to the plate.  Bring Our Paper home.

6 Responses

  1. Wonderful article (post).

  2. Every time Tony puts his fingers on the keyboard and posts, it’s gold. Here he goes again. I have only one minor quibble…

    I honestly don’t think we can blame NWA’s 2005 bankruptcy on on Al and we certainly can’t blame the 2008 Deltanization on his legacy.

    True, Al and his fellow investors did leverage up the company with what turned out to be too much debt in the late 1980s and early 1990s but the effects of that were pretty thoroughly wrung out of NWA’s capital structure by 2001 or so. My memory is hazy – ’cause I’m so damned old – but on key metrics – cash on hand, debt-to-revenue ratios, debt ratings – we looked a lot like the other network carriers.

    And, while Chapter 11 is nobody’s idea of fun, NWA came out of it with a cost structure that was better than pretty much everyone else’s. And, they saved their employees’ pensions, something no other airline managed to do while running that gauntlet.

    I’m not going to knock what I hope will be a great thread off course with a long post on what is a side issue to Tony’s larger, more important points, but I also didn’t want to let that one go unremarked. Al and his colleagues were no saints and they were definitely in it for the money but they were not in the raping-and-pillaging business.

    - Austin

  3. I don’t want to quibble, but a few clarifications:

    1. what Avista did was stupid. period. they aren’t getting away with murder here–they are going to lose lots of money on this deal. It was a dumb deal that should never have been made. But people do make mistakes, and this was a big one. but they are not raping the company, pillaging the retirement funds, etc. This is not a barbarians at the gate situation.

    2. what avista did is only hastening the already pre-existing problems that the Strib (and the entire industry) was facing. This is an industry that is going thru wrenching changes everywhere. No one has come up with a feasible future for print newspapers as yet, and the Strib was going to have to face these problems sooner or later, and there is no indication that anyone who might have been interested in running the place had a workable plan for the future. So without avista in the mix, the Strib might have had a few more years to gasp and struggle before it died. But to suggest that they would not be in this place (Chapter 11) without avista is wrong. Avista only sped up the process. They were already in trouble.

    3. the optimistic view is that by forcing the Strib to do this sooner rather than later, it might (maybe, possibly, hopefully) hit upon a solution before others do, and be in a better position to capitalize.

    4. And all of this is, and you rightly pointed out, a tragedy for the community and the people who work at the Strib.

  4. I won’t quibble at all…

    My takeaway is not so much about newspapers or airlines, or barbarians and rapists vs. fools and idiots, but the price we all will continue to pay for our participation in a culture of over-leverage. In the year Oliver Stone’s Wall Street came out, I spent an intensive, company-sponsored week studying finance with some people who were the academic precursors of Checci and Wilson. I was there to be groomed, but getting a close look at this worldview as it approached the gates helped push me out of corporate life.

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