GDP BFD for GOP

Today’s report that the country’s gross domestic product grew just 0.6 percent in the 1st quarter of the year is one more page of bad news for GOP strategists. As Dr. Loveland pointed out in a comment yesterday, GDP growth is a fairly reliable predictor of elections in this country: when 2nd quarter GDP growth is 2.6% or higher, the president (or other candidate of his party) will likely win the election. If the growth rate is 1.5% or lower, the president’s party will likely lose. Obviously, we don’t have 2nd quarter data yet, but we’re a month into the quarter already (April-June) and I’m pretty sure things haven’t gotten better in the last month.

The report does, however, give at least one corner of the GOP some comfort: President Bush can continue to cling to the notion that we have yet to meet a technical definition of a recession (commonly held to be two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP). This makes his press conference yesterday slightly less surreal, but the it also underscores how irrelevant he has become to the political debate…the only group that bothered to react to his “I wish I had a magic wand to wave” remarks was the Democratic leadership on the Hill to whom he tried - unsuccessfully I think - to shift the blame for the mess.